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Vietnam to become 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia: IMF
  • | TTXVN | October 17, 2020 03:00 PM
Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to reach USD340.6 billion  this year, making it the fourth-largest economy in Southeast Asia.

This is revealed in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook released this week.

Accordingly, Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia which is forecasted to have positive growth this year, at 1.6 percent and will reach 6.7 percent by 2021.


IMF forecasts Vietnam's economy will rank fourth in Southeast Asia this year, surpassing Singapore and Malaysia.

Specifically, the country's GDP is estimated to reach USD340.6 billion , exceeding Singapore with USD337.5 billion and Malaysia with  USD.336.3 billion

Meanwhile, Thailand's GDP will reach USD509.2 billion this year, the Philippines USD367.4 billion, and Indonesia USD1.088 trillion .

For GDP per capita, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam's GDP per capita ranks sixth in ASEAN, reaching 3,497 USD per person this year, followed by the Philippines with USD3,372, Laos USD2,567, Cambodia USD1,572 and Myanmar USD1,332.

Overall, the average growth forecast for ASEAN-5 member countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will decrease by 3.4 percent, while that of Asian emerging and developing countries will decrease by 1.7 percent.

China continues to be the only major economy expected to grow, reaching 1.9 percent this year and up to 8.2 percent by 2021. For the US, the IMF forecasts that the country's GDP will decrease by 4.3 percent this year.

The economies of France, Italy, the UK and Spain are forecast to decrease by about 10 percent. For Europe, the figure is 8.3 percent.

IMF revised the global GDP forecast to fall by 4.4 percent this year, and will be up to 5.2 percent by 2021.

The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue next year but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve. Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022.

"We were projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession this year, relative to our June forecast," said Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counsellor and director of research.

“Moreover, recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread. With renewed upticks in COVID-19 infections in places that had reduced local transmission to low levels, reopenings have paused, and targeted shutdowns are being reinstated. Economies everywhere face difficult paths back to pre-pandemic activity levels,” she noted./.

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